Quaterna Publica

The Undoing Project

This is the extraordinary story – The Undoing Project: A Friendship that Changed the World, published by W.W. Norton & Company – of the two men whose ideas changed the world. Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky met in war-torn 1960s Israel. Both were gifted young psychology professors: Kahneman a rootless son of holocaust survivors who saw the world as a problem to be solved; Tversky a voluble, instinctual blur of energy. In this breathtaking new book, Michael Lewis tells the extraordinary […]

High and Dry: Climate Change, Water and the Economy

By World Bank Group From Executive Summary: “The impacts of climate change will be channeled primarily through the water cycle, with consequences that could be large and uneven across the globe. Water-related climate risks cascade through food, energy, urban, and environmental systems. Growing populations, rising incomes, and expanding cities will converge upon a world where the demand for water rises exponen- tially, while supply becomes more erratic and uncertain. If current water management policies persist, and climate models prove correct, […]

European Public Sector Award 2015

By Harrie Scholtens In 2015 the European Institute of Public Administration (EIPA) was the proud organiser of the 2015 Edition of the European Public Sector Award (EPSA), the fifth edition since the beginning. The EPSA was first awarded in 2007 and since then takes place every two years. EIPA has organised and managed it for the fourth time in a row. Now that the successful Award Ceremony is over, time has come for a more personal general reflection on the […]

Antarctic model raises prospect of unstoppable ice collapse

Source: Nature Choices that the world makes this century could determine the fate of the massive Antarctic ice sheet. A study published online this week in Nature1 finds that continued growth in greenhouse-gas emissions over the next several decades could trigger an unstoppable collapse of Antarctica’s ice — raising sea levels by more than a metre by 2100 and more than 15 metres by 2500. “That is literally remapping how the planet looks from space,” says study co-author Rob DeConto, a geoscientist at the […]

Stunning Acceleration of Sea Level Rise

The scientists reported in a paper published Monday 22nd of February 2016 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that they have greater than 95 percent certainty that at least half of more than 5 inches of sea level rise they detected during the 20th century was directly caused by global warming. If we stop polluting now the rise will be additional 9 inches to 2 feet. That would trigger serious flooding in some areas, and worsen it in others. On page […]

Nuclear Security Index: Theft & Sabotage

This report of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) points out that many countries are well prepared for a cyber attack on their nuclear installations. The third Nuclear Security Index gives an overview of the readiness of countries for the protection of their nuclear installations against sabotage and cyber attacks. Co-Chairman and CEO Sam Nunn concludes in his introduction: ‘I believe it is fair to say that today we are at a crossroads on nuclear security. When the 2016 Nuclear Security […]

Global Risks Report 2016

The Global Risks Report 2016 has been published on the14th of January 2016. In its 11th edition the World Economic Forum: “The report draws attention to ways that global risks could evolve and interact in the next decade. The year 2016 marks a forceful departure from past findings, as the risks about which the Report has been warning over the past decade are starting to manifest themselves in new, sometimes unexpected ways and harm people, institutions and economies. Warming climate […]

Compliance Horizon Survey 2015

The Risk Advisory Group surveyed over 200 compliance professionals in their Compliance Horizon Survey 2015 from across the UK, Europe and beyond to pinpoint the key issues for the industry going in to 2016.  The respondents said they exposed to risk and lack confidence in their team’s resources to protect the business. The headlines: Quote The majority (83 per cent) of compliance professionals feel that compliance has become more complex in the past two years, with larger businesses feeling this more acutely. […]

Territorial Cohesion and Urban Policy

Committee of the Regions | 27 November 2015 On the occasion of the informal ministerial meetings on Territorial Cohesion and Urban Policy which took place on November 26th and 27th, ministers discussed how to keep a balance in the development opportunities on the European Territory.  In the first place, ministers agreed that the European integration is actually under pressure. Europe is losing cohesion in many fields. One of the most apparent consequences is the uneven response to the migration crisis. The lack […]

‘From Global to Local’ The Hague

Think Tank PRIMO & UDITE, 24 april 2015, Amsterdam The Global Risk Report 2014 of the World Economic Forum is clearly designed for global issues, sometimes related to the national level, but most of the times on a larger than that. The report gives a general outline of the most relevant risks. We know that not all risks can be handled and reduced on local level, but we know from our network that many local and regional public leaders and the […]

Breaking the Tragedy of the Horizon – climate change and financial stability

Mike Carney, Governor of the Bank of England Chairman of the Financial Stability Board, gave its speech at  Lloyd’s of London, 29 September 2015. He focuses on the facts and the consequences for our architecture of government, safety, insurance and financial stability of the world economy. A quote: “There are three broad channels through which climate change can affect financial stability: First, physical risks: the impacts today on insurance liabilities and the value of financial assets that arise from climate- […]

Lloyd’s City Risk Index 2015-2025

Lloyd’s City Risk Index 2015-2025 analyses, for the first time, the potential impact on the economic output (GDP@Risk) of 301 of the world’s major cities from 18 manmade and natural threats: 301 cities, 18 threat, US$4.56trn at risk. Based on original research by the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies at the University of Cambridge Judge Business School, the Index shows how governments, businesses and communities are highly exposed to systemic, catastrophic shocks and could do more to mitigate risk and improve resilience. Identifying the […]

Quality Manager becomes Risk Manager in ISO 9001:2015

ISO 9001:2015 sets out the new criteria for a quality management system and is the only standard in the family that can be certified to. It can be used by any organization, large or small, regardless of its field of activity. In fact, there are over one million companies and organizations in over 170 countries certified to ISO 9001. Interesting now is that the new standard is based on a number of quality management principles including a strong customer focus, […]

Reflections on Education

By John O’Dea Some weeks ago, I was invited, or rather coerced into giving a talk about PRIMO to my granddaughter’s class for careers day. I loaded the PowerPoint presentation that I prepared tracing the organisation’s development from its birth as an idea and a concept on the 1st April 2005 to what it is today – the premier public risk management organisation in Europe. I spoke briefly about Murphy’s Law and the definition of risk, segueing smoothly into PRIMO’s […]

Re-Thinking Public Risk

By Jack P. Kruf This newly designed PRIMO Magazine is dedicated to the process of rethinking of public risk. The term is so ambiguous that we think that more focus and precision in the use of the term public risk is needed. In fact public risk is closely linked to public value. Based on COSO II and ISO 31000 public risk can be defined as a deviation of our desired quality of life. It is not only risk  within public organisations but in […]

EU Cyber Security

Securing network and information systems in the EU is essential to ensure prosperity and to keep the online economy running. The European Union works on a number of fronts to ensure cybersecurity in Europe, from providing the delivery of better internet for kids to implementing the international cooperation on cybersecurity and cybercrime.Digital technologies and the Internet are the backbone of our society and economy; they are key enablers of prosperity and freedom. Network and information systems can be affected by […]

AON’s Political Risk Map

Aon Risk Solutions, announced that its Interactive Political Risk Map. The online interactive map complements the print map, and was launched in partnership with Roubini Global Economics to expand the suite of tools offered to clients. It draws on 15 years of emerging market data collection to measure political risks in 163 countries and territories to help companies assess the risk levels of exchange transfer, legal and regulatory risk, political interference, political violence, sovereign non-payment, supply chain disruption, risks to doing business, banking sector vulnerability and risks […]

Swiss Re SONAR: New emerging risk insights

Swiss Re update report highlights new and emerging risks the re/insurance industry expects to face over the next few years: SONAR report looks at 21 emerging risk themes, their potential impact and cascading effects across the industry. The four emerging risks with the highest potential impact are de-globalisation, super natural catastrophes, the “great monetary experiment” and the challenge of the “Internet of Things”. Key drivers of the changing risk landscape are new economic, technological, socio-political and environmental developments as well […]

Future of Insurance

How the tech- revolution is reshaping the way claims are handled. The insurance industry is undergoing a revolution – technological advancements are transforming how claims are processed, putting an end to labour-intensive systems. Europe-based manufacturer discovered recently, the value of a policy often becomes evident only after a company has suffered a loss and made a claim. Managers at the firm in question were shocked to discover that the company’s insurance covered only 85% of what turned out to be […]

The strategic importance of risk managing the supply chain

Risk managers should keep a handle on their supplier relationships as this can lead to significant gains. The corporate risks posed by a potential supply chain failure are leading more risk managers to keep a close handle on their supplier relationships and they are finding, in some instances, that significant gains can be made in the process. The latest spate of negative headlines about UK-based corporates that have been found wanting in their governance of suppliers or have suffered operational […]